The Rogun Hydropower Plant Project (HPP) is a large project (3,780MW) under construction located on the Vakhsh River located about 110 km East-Northeast of Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan. It is a Project that will have a large reservoir capable of providing seasonal regulation. It will supply firm energy during the winter months when demand for electricity is the highest in Tajikistan and will allow for exports of clean electricity to the Central Asia (CA) region and beyond. An initial climate risk assessment has been completed for the Rogun HPP project, however downstream resource implications have not been assessed. In this assignment FutureWater addresses wider system-level adaptation needs across the Amu Darya basin due to increased water use demand during the Rogun HPP reservoir filling period, climate-driven change to water supply and demand, and identification of potential supply-demand gaps.

A consortium of international development finance institutions led by World bank and including Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signaled their intention to support the financing of the Project. ADB is committed under Strategy 2030 operating priority 3 to support its Developing Member Countries to ensure a comprehensive approach to build climate and disaster resilience. The climate risk management approach of the ADB aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects by identifying climate change risks to project performance in the early stages of project development, and which will support decision-making to incorporate the most appropriate adaptation measures in the design.

An initial climate risk assessment has been completed for the Rogun HPP project including assessments of natural hazards, hydrology, sedimentation, and the impact of climate change projections on project performance, however downstream resource implications have not been assessed. In this project FutureWater addresses wider system-level adaptation needs across the Amu Darya basin due to increased water use demand during the Rogun HPP reservoir filling period, climate-driven change to water supply and demand, and identification of potential supply-demand gaps. A combination of hydrological and water allocation modeling will form an evidence-base to inform recommended adaptive measures for the design and operation of Rogun HPP and for wider water-use sectors where required.

FutureWater undertakes analysis to understand projected climate change driven changes in water supply in Rogun HPP upstream areas, and water demands in downstream areas and the wider Amu Darya basin, with a focus on identifying the potential for a supply-demand gap throughout the Rogun HPP reservoir filling period to 2040. Where a risk of a supply-demand gap is identified FutureWater provides recommended measures that can increase water efficiency in the competing demand use sectors with the overall aim of meeting demand across the different scenarios and in compliance with cross-boundary resource sharing agreements.

Specifically, FutureWater addresses following topics:

  • Model projected water supply and demand in the Amu Darya river basin by utilizing a WEAP model developed for water supply, demand and allocation analysis, and accounting for climate change, Rogun HPP reservoir filling schedule, changing hydrology patterns and changes to downstream water demand from irrigation and other relevant end-use demands, where relevant.
  • Analyze the potential for water resource supply-demand gap to 2040 for a range of climate scenarios that capture potential future pathways aligned to government plans and policies and climate change, where relevant.
  • Recommend required water efficiency measures, where a risk of a supply-demand gap is identified under the the limits set by the cross-border water resource sharing agreement, so as to mitgate the risk with high-level cost estimate where capital investment is required.