Golovnaya hydropower plant is located 80 kilometers south of Dushanbe and has an installed generation capacity of 240 MW, making it the fourth largest hydropower plant in Tajikistan, after Nurek (3,000 MW), Sangtuda 1 (670 MW), and Baipaza (600 MW). Construction began in 1956, with the first unit commissioned in 1962. Since then, except for one unit, the plant has not undergone significant modernization or improvements to maintain its original performance in terms of efficiency, reliability, safety, or to reduce operation and maintenance costs. Consequently, most of the main electro-mechanical and hydro-mechanical equipment is now in poor condition.

The current project, for which FutureWater conducted a climate risk assessment (CRA), aims to include the rehabilitation of generation Unit 4 of the hydropower plant, which was not part of the ongoing efforts. Unit 4 is expected to add approximately 49 MW to the overall plant capacity. The CRA report evaluated the climate risk and adaptation prospects of the additional project and provides recommendations to enhance its adaptability and climate resilience, further securing this investment.

FutureWater supported this project by conducting a comprehensive review of climate and climate change research, studies, reports, and data related to the Golovnaya hydropower plant. Key findings include: (i) the project should be analyzed within the context of the entire Vakhsh River basin and system; (ii) the operations of upstream reservoirs and hydropower facilities will have a greater impact on Golovnaya than climate change itself; (iii) climate change will affect upstream facilities and thereby indirectly impact Golovnaya. The overall conclusion was that for the specific project (rehabilitating hydropower turbines), the climate risk is relatively low.

FutureWater’s impact was contributing to ensuring that the Golovnaya rehabilitation project will be climate-resilient, thereby securing the investment.