The Yesil, also known as the Esil or Ishim, drains a snowmelt-dominated basin in northern Kazakhstan. The spring freshet arrives fast and concentrated, because the soil column is still frozen when melt begins. In March and April 2024 the basin produced Kazakhstan’s worst flooding in around eighty years, overtopping reservoirs downstream and forcing evacuations at Petropavlovsk. Those events are the reference against which the new scheme’s contribution to flood risk reduction is assessed.

The Yesil Integrated River Basin and Infrastructure Solutions Project responds with a 23 metre compacted earthfill counter-regulator upstream of Kurskoye, re-regulating a river that is already impounded further upstream. Outside the flood season the structure is held as a dry detention basin, so that storage is available at the onset of melt to intercept and re-time the freshet before it reaches the downstream reservoir cascade. The design life is 30 years. The Asian Development Bank classifies the scheme as directly exposed to climate risk, which calls for climate due diligence before investment.

FutureWater carries out the climate risk and adaptation assessment. The assessment establishes the observed climate of the basin from the ERA5-Land reanalysis and the projected climate from a CMIP6 ensemble under a moderate and a high emissions pathway, and traces what both imply for snowpack, melt timing and flood magnitude at the dam axis.

Its scope covers the design flood and the flood-frequency basis on which the structure is sized, the reservoir routing and freeboard, the operating rules for detention and release, and the monitoring needed to manage what remains uncertain. Adaptation measures are identified for each material risk and framed so that they can be carried into the design, the operating plans and the project’s dam safety case.

FutureWater also prepares the climate change assessment supporting the project’s alignment with the Paris Agreement and its climate finance categorisation, and provides climate risk and adaptation inputs to the Asian Development Bank’s project documentation.

The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) program incorporated agriculture and water as a new pillar in 2017 under its CAREC 2030 strategy to promote cooperation on water scarcity, productivity, and regional water management. A scoping study, to which FutureWater provided technical inputs, and supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), led to the development of a framework for the CAREC Water Pillar, which received regional endorsement during consultations. A dedicated Water Pillar Working Group consisting of representatives from the five Central Asian countries prioritized three projects for pre-feasibility studies.

For these pre-feasibility studies, FutureWater assesses climate risks and impacts on water resources on the various project locations. The projects include two transboundary infrastructure projects linked to the Bakhri Tojik reservoir, and should provide benefits to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyz Republic and Kazakhstan. A third project aims at deploying a regional automated hydrometeorological monitoring system.

 

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is considering supporting the (re)construction of four wastewater treatment plants in Stepnogorsk, Satpaev, Zhezkazgan, and Balkhash. Detailed engineering designs are being prepared by designers recruited by Vodokanals. Climate change impacts may exacerbate environmental pollution and other adverse effects of aging infrastructure on service delivery. FutureWater conducted a Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) to ensure that climate impacts are fully considered in the detailed design and construction phases.

The CRA identified the main vulnerability components for the four proposed wastewater treatment plants as: (i) extreme precipitation leading to stormwater runoff, (ii) low flows causing water quality problems, (iii) flooding of infrastructure (both fluvial and pluvial), (iv) power supply outages, and (v) heat stress. FutureWater’s risk assessment, which considered the combined effects of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, concluded that all five major identified risks require attention. Since the draft designs already account for the current extreme climate conditions, and due to relatively modest projected climate changes (temperature, precipitation, wind), the need for additional adaptation measures will be relatively modest.

FutureWater’s assessment contributed to ensuring that the four wastewater treatment plants will be climate-resilient, thereby securing the investment.

The project prepares robust climate mitigation and adaptation pipelines aligned with the Paris Agreement and responsive to DMCs climate change priorities. The TA will support interventions on departmental, sectoral and country levels with key activities including development of a regional strategy, upstream climate assessments, climate pipeline development, government dialogues and capacity building. As part of this project, FutureWater conducts a regional climate risk assessment for ten countries. This includes an assessment of baseline and future climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability and addressing sectoral impacts and adaptation options for a wide range of sectors. In addition country profiles summarizing climate risks for the ten countries are generated. The reginal climate risk assessment feeds into the climate strategy.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) is supporting the Government of Kazakhstan in it’s “Wastewater Treatment Plants Reconstruction and Construction Program”. The overall aim is to improve the wastewater treatment facilities in the 53 cities across Kazakhstan. The Program will be implemented through a phased approach. During the first phase five Wastewater Treatment Plants in Stepnogorsk, Zhezkazgan, Satpayev, Balkhash and Zhanatas are to be financed by ADB.

FutureWater has undertaken a climate risk and adaptation analysis for those facilities. FutureWater has extended and updated a previous climate risk assessment (CRA). The original CRA was based on the CMIP3 projections and only some selected climate models were used. FutureWater has updated the original CRA by using downscaled CMIP5 projections (NASA-NEX) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and the full range of climate models. Also adaptation strategies were refined.

Results show that the key climate risks includes a projected increase in mean annual temperature for all five waste water treatment plants and hottest day temperature are in the same range. Those higher temperatures might negatively affect operations and efficiencies of the plants. Mean annual precipitation is projected to increase for all five treatment plants. Potential risk of flooding of the infrastructure or large influx of storm water is determined by wettest day precipitation. An increase in wettest day precipitation is projected to be between 6% to 14%. Zhanatas and Stepnogorsk waste water treatment plants are most vulnerable regarding the risk of increased severity and frequency of floods.

Adaptation interventions to those projected climate changes are explored in the initial environmental examination (IEE) and will be further developed during the detailed design phase. The following broad adaptation options are foreseen:

  • selection of sites less prone to flooding for the two new WWTP,
  • flood protection of the three WWTP to be rehabilitated,
  • selection of sewerage technology that will function under higher temperatures,
  • awareness raising of staff, and
  • monitoring to avoid sewer overflows during storm events.

Recently, the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program introduced agriculture and water as a new cluster in its strategic framework. Recognizing the complexities of the water sector and the existing landscape of cooperation activities, the strategic framework proposes a complementary approach that uses the strengths of CAREC to further promote dialogue on water issues. A scoping study was commissioned, supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), to develop a framework for the Water Pillar for further consideration by the governing bodies of CAREC. It was agreed that the initial focus of the Water Pillar should be on the five Central Asian states with consideration given to expanding to other CAREC member countries over time.

The objective of the study is to develop the scope of a Water Pillar Framework that includes a roadmap of national development interventions for each of the five Central Asian Republics that responds to the prevailing challenges and opportunities in water resources management.

The framework will be derived from three specific outputs:

  • Output 1: Projection of future availability and demand for water resources for the Central Asia region up to 2050 including implications of climate change.
  • Output 2: Identification of future water resources development and management opportunities in the form of a sector specific framework for water resources infrastructure taking into consideration sustainability issues through a comparative assessment of cost recovery mechanisms and operation and maintenance (O&M) practices.
  • Output 3: Preparation of a framework for policy and institutional strengthening that addresses common themes and issues related to national water resources legislation and the capacity and knowledge development needs of water resources agencies with an emphasis on economic aspects and sustainable financing.

For this work, FutureWater provides key inputs on the climate change and water resources aspects, including desk review, stakeholder consultations across the five regions and across all sectors, and analysis of climate change risks and identification of adaptation options that have a regional dimension and can be taken up through regional or bilateral cooperation. Following the scoping study, FutureWater supports in the identification of priority activities based on an extensive consultative process in the region, with emphasis on climate resilience. Also it supports the identification of potential water pillar development partners and financing opportunities, including steps needed to qualify for climate finance

The SREB is part of the Belt and Road Initiative, being a development strategy that focuses on connectivity and cooperation between Eurasian countries. Essentially, the SREB includes countries situated on the original Silk Road through Central Asia, West Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. The initiative calls for the integration of the region into a cohesive economic area through building infrastructure, increasing cultural exchanges, and broadening trade. A major part of the SREB traverses Asia’s high-altitude areas, also referred to as the Third Pole or the Asian Water Tower. In the light of the planned development for the SREB traversing the Third Pole and its immediate surroundings, the “Pan-Third Pole Environment study for a Green Silk Road (Pan-TPE)” program will be implemented.

The project will assess the state and fate of water resources in the region under following research themes:

1. Observed and projected Pan-TPE climate change
2. Impacts on the present and future Water Tower of Asia
3. The Green Silk Road and changes in water demand
4. Adaptation for green development

A detailed Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) report has been developed. The main findings of the CRVA are:

In terms of climate change observations over the last 60 years:

  • The average annual temperature in Kazakhstan has been rising by 0.3 ºC/decade. The rate of warming is more pronounced during spring / autumn
  • Increase in annual mean temperatures is most pronounced in Aktobe and Kyzlorda oblasts and least in East Kazakhstan.
  • The length of dry spells has increased over conterminous Kazakhstan concurrently with observed increasing trends in precipitation intensity.
  • In Kazakhstan precipitation tends to slightly decrease of 1 mm per decade in all seasons except winter when precipitation tends to increase by 2 mm per decade.

In terms of climate change projections for the coming decades:

  • Mean annual temperatures are projected to increase by 2.5°C by the 2020s, 4.5°C by the 2050s and 7.0°C by the 2080s under RCP 8.5 concentration pathway.
  • A significant increase in precipitation of about 24% during the winter by the end of this century. However, during the summer season, a decline of -13% in precipitation is projected.

In terms of impact of climate change:

  • Higher crop water requirements of about 8-10% by 2020 and 15% by 2050 compared to the reference (1990).
  • Seasonal shift with earlier planting opportunities and therefore irrigation demands earlier in the season.
  • Substantial reduction in runoff to streams and rivers as a result of higher evaporation rates and precipitation reductions.
  • Higher flooding risks due to projected extremes in daily rainfall, especially in the more mountainous regions.
  • Falling groundwater tables as a result of lower recharge.

In terms of adaptation of climate change:

  • Design crop water requirements at 10-15% higher compared to the 1990 climate data. Design criteria for canals should also be 10-15% higher.
  • Design of storage capacity should be substantially higher to compensate for the projected decrease in base flows and increase in demand. Exact numbers should be Sub-Project and Project level determined.
  • Awareness raising to farmers is needed to make them aware that changes in climate will influence water delivery and will gradually lead to a change in cropping patterns and farm water management.
Example of changes in irrigated areas based on Landsat satellite data using maximum NDVI values over 5 years. Location is just north-west of Aktobe town.

The energy sector is sensitive to changes in seasonal weather patterns and extremes that can affect the supply of energy, harm transmission capacity, disrupt oil and gas production, and impact the integrity of transmission pipelines and power distribution. Most infrastructure has been built to design codes based on historic climate data and will require rehabilitation, upgrade or replacement in the coming years. This poses both a challenge and an opportunity for adaptation. Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world. Expected climate impacts range from increased temperature (across the region), changes in precipitation and snow, greater extreme weather events, aridisation and desertification, health, and changes in water resources.

Toktogul reservoir, Kyrgyzstan

Energy and water are closely interrelated as water is used to generate energy (hydropower, cooling of thermal plants) but energy is also required to fulfil water needs (e.g. pumping, water treatment, desalination). Especially in Central Asia, meeting daily energy needs depends to a large extent on water. Guaranteeing sufficient water resources for energy production, and appropriately allocating the limited supply, is becoming increasingly difficult. As the region’s population keeps on growing, competing demand for water from other sectors is expected to grow, potentially exacerbating the issue.

The World Bank is committed to working with the governments of Central Asia to undertake analysis and to identify priorities in adaptation to climate change, including strengthening regional trade through a rigorous, transparent region-scale study. Therefore it currently undertakes a regional assessment to identify areas of possible coordination and possible transboundary impact. The overall project objective is to contribute to a better understanding of the challenges and opportunities for effective joint management of climate adaptation, contributing to the objective of the World Bank’s Central Asia strategy of energy and water security through enhanced cooperation. The results of this assessment should guide current and future decision-makers on options for investments in and management of power generation and transmission/distribution assets through enhanced cooperation.

Amy_Darya_Syr_Darya_mapThe objective of this study is to support the “Central Asia Regional Energy Sector Vulnerability Study” led by Industrial Economics (IEc) and funded by the World Bank, by carrying out an expanded risk assessment for water availability and water related energy sector impacts in the region. The work will build on the existing tools developed previously for Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins. Various necessary extensions and enhancements of the tools will be made to include the latest understanding of climatological and hydrological processes and include the latest planned investments in hydropower facilities and cooling water abstractions of the thermal power plants in the region.

Water resources management in the Central Asia region faces big challenges. The hydrological regimes of the two major rivers in the region, the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya, are complex and vulnerable to climate change. Water diversions to agricultural, industrial and domestic users have reduced flows in downstream regions, resulting in severe ecological damages. The administrative-institutional system is fragmented, with six independent countries sharing control, often with contradicting objectives.

Under the leadership of the Finnish Consulting Group and in collaboration with the Finnish Meteorological Institute, FutureWater develops hydrological models to assess the water resources availability in the region under climate change. The project focuses on the Aral Sea basin (Pamir and Tien Shan mountains) in Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Hydrological models are developed for the Amu Darya and Syr Darya and include several climate change impact scenarios. The project develops national capacity in each of the participating countries to use the models to prepare climate change impact scenarios and develop adaptation strategies. This will then result in improved national strategies for climate change adaptation. We collaborate closely with the main regional and national organizations responsible for land and water management.